The Quiet Probability Scale - Security and Tradeoff Reasoning (2003-2025)
Human risk judgments are easily distorted by fear and buzz. Kahneman's "System 1" is intuitive and easily controlled by emotions, while "System 2" is deliberative and responsible for probabilistic thinking. However, many people ignore the base rate (actual probability of occurrence) and make judgments based on impressions. In Japan, the number of fatalities from air accidents is extremely small, compared to the nearly 20,000 people who are involved in bathing accidents each year. Still, people feel "airplanes are scary" and believe "bathtubs are safe. This reversal is proof that emotion trumps reason, and the same structure can be seen in security and social risk management. The key is to make decisions based on "likelihood of occurrence x damage (expected loss)" rather than "fear. The attitude of calmly considering the base rate and impact, rather than fear or impression, is the basis for wise security decisions. Feel, count, and think - that order is the scale that supports
reason.
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