The Evolution of U.S. Grain Supply and Demand - From the 1990s to the 2020s

The Evolution of U.S. Grain Supply and Demand - From the 1990s to the 2020s

1990s According to a Worldwatch Institute report, grain prices rose 39% over the three years ending in 1996. This was driven by China's rapidly increasing feed demand, particularly the expansion of grain imports accompanying growth in meat production. While U.S. grain exports increased, domestic stockpiles were declining, creating a need for stabilization in the international market.

2000s In the early 2000s, corn demand surged due to the expansion of bioethanol production. This triggered a sharp rise in grain prices, making food price inflation a global issue. Simultaneously, major grain producers like Brazil and Argentina increased their exports, intensifying competition in the U.S. export market.

2010s: During the 2010s, China established itself as the world's largest grain importer. U.S. soybeans and corn became central supplies for China's food security policy. However, U.S.-China trade friction temporarily led China to shift imports to other countries like Brazil. Additionally, climate change impacts caused harvest fluctuations due to floods and droughts, becoming a significant issue.

2020s: Entering the 2020s, ample rainfall in the U.S. Midwest boosted grain production, with bumper corn and soybean harvests projected for 2024. However, high production levels in Brazil and other countries, coupled with intensifying market competition, drove grain prices to their lowest levels since 2020. China's grain demand remains high, with imports reaching 160 million tons in 2023, accounting for a quarter of the global total. American farmers face pressure on profits due to falling prices and are implementing cost-cutting measures. Furthermore, concerns exist that Brazil is expanding its share of the Chinese market, potentially reducing the U.S.'s export market share.