The Tide of the Speed of the Intelligence Explosion - A Turning Point for an Accelerating Future (2025)

The Tide of the Speed of the Intelligence Explosion - A Turning Point for an Accelerating Future (2025)
The concept of an "intelligence explosion," in which AI's ability to rapidly increase through repeated self-improvement and potentially overtake human intelligence in a short period of time, is considered a central issue in future predictions. According to the self-reinforcing loop concept proposed by mathematician I.J. Good, as AI that produces superintelligence continues to design even more powerful AI, intelligence improvement will accelerate exponentially and may reach an uncontrollable stage all at once. This speed is a determining factor in the time left for preparation and countermeasures; if extremely fast, humanity could face serious consequences before technological understanding and ethical consensus are in place. On the other hand, the slow-takeoff theory suggests that the growth curve will be slower, allowing for policy development and the development of safety technologies. Critical observers argue that explosive acceleration is unlikely to be realized due to re
source and discovery rate constraints, but in any case, speed uncertainty is a civilization-wide challenge that will have a profound impact on the design of future societies.