Melting of Siberian Permafrost—January 2007 to the 2020s

Melting of Siberian Permafrost—January 2007 to the 2020s

Situation in January 2007
As of 2007, permafrost was melting in the Siberian region of Russia. This melting had the potential to affect 65% of an area spanning approximately 20 million square kilometers across the entire Arctic Circle. Permafrost layers contain approximately 1,400 gigatons of carbon, and there were concerns that as thawing progressed, it could lead to the release of about 5 billion tons of methane (CH₄) and carbon dioxide (CO₂) annually. Additionally, for large corporations such as Norilsk Nickel, facility damage caused by ground subsidence had become a serious challenge.

Developments in the 2010s
By the 2010s, the melting of Siberian permafrost had become more pronounced due to the acceleration of global warming. In particular, in 2016, a mysterious giant crater was discovered on the Yamal Peninsula, attributed to a gas explosion caused by thawing. In this region, the pressure of methane gas accumulated underground increased, and its explosive release formed multiple craters exceeding 30 meters in diameter.

Furthermore, in 2019, the average temperature across Siberia was approximately 5°C higher than normal, accelerating the surface thaw of the permafrost. Over the decade of the 2010s, annual greenhouse gas emissions from permafrost thaw reached 600 million tons of CO₂ equivalent, creating a "feedback loop" that further accelerated global warming.

At the same time, forest fires increased, and in 2019, approximately 150,000 square kilometers of forest were burned in Siberia. Carbon dioxide emissions from these fires amounted to about 350 million tons, making Siberia one of the major sources of emissions contributing to global warming.

Accelerating Thaw in the 2020s
In May 2020, ground subsidence caused by permafrost thaw near Norilsk led to the collapse of an oil storage tank, spilling approximately 21,000 tons of diesel fuel into the Ambarnaia River. The environmental cleanup costs from this accident are estimated at over $2 billion, making it the largest oil spill in the history of the Russian Arctic.

In June of the same year, a record-breaking 38.0°C—the highest temperature ever recorded in the Arctic—was recorded in Verkhoyansk, Siberia, and the extreme heat caused permafrost to thaw over an even wider area. As a result, it is predicted that approximately 7 billion tons of CO₂ equivalent greenhouse gases will be released annually.

Furthermore, by 2024, the Batagaika Crater in Siberia (commonly known as the "Gateway to Hell") had expanded at a rate of approximately 1 million cubic meters per year, reaching an area of about 0.8 square kilometers. This crater symbolizes rapid changes in the landscape while releasing large amounts of methane gas.

Conclusion and International Challenges
Throughout the 2010s, the thawing of Siberian permafrost garnered international attention as a symbol of climate change in the Arctic, and its impacts have become even more severe in the 2020s. The release of 1,400 gigatons of carbon trapped in permafrost into the atmosphere has the potential to accelerate global warming.

Furthermore, damage to Siberian infrastructure has resulted in direct economic losses, with Norilsk Nickel reporting damages amounting to billions of dollars. Meanwhile, the impact of environmental changes across the entire Arctic—such as wildfires and gas explosions—on humanity is immeasurable.

To address this, it is necessary to establish more than 50 new monitoring stations in the Siberian region by 2025 and proceed with the collection of detailed data on gas emissions. Policies to strengthen international CO₂ reduction targets and accelerate the transition to renewable energy are essential. As the thawing of permafrost is a critical issue that will determine the state of the global environment over the coming decades, sustained international cooperation is required.