The World of Expanding Waste From 2023 to 2060 Global waste growth is accelerating as population increase, urbanization, rising incomes, and mass consumption converge. The United Nations Environment Programme estimates municipal solid waste will expand from approximately 2.1 billion tons in 2023 to about 3.8 billion tons by 2050. The World Bank also forecasts that the volume, which was around 2 billion tons in 2016, will reach approximately 3.4 billion tons by 2050, emphasizing that the rate of increase will outpace population growth. This expansion in volume is not temporary but a structural trend.

The World of Expanding Waste From 2023 to 2060 Global waste growth is accelerating as population increase, urbanization, rising incomes, and mass consumption converge. The United Nations Environment Programme estimates municipal solid waste will expand from approximately 2.1 billion tons in 2023 to about 3.8 billion tons by 2050. The World Bank also forecasts that the volume, which was around 2 billion tons in 2016, will reach approximately 3.4 billion tons by 2050, emphasizing that the rate of increase will outpace population growth. This expansion in volume is not temporary but a structural trend.

In cities, short-lived products like packaging materials, disposable goods, and containers from takeout and delivery services are concentrated in waste streams. Per capita waste generation increases with rising income. In rapidly urbanizing regions, collection and processing systems struggle to keep pace, creating risks of widespread open dumping and open burning. Such improper disposal not only causes odors, pests, incineration smoke, and leachate but also impacts climate change through methane emissions from organic waste.

The costs of waste management extend beyond direct collection and processing expenses. Hidden social costs accumulate, including health hazards, environmental pollution, and greenhouse gas emissions. The increase in plastic waste crosses borders as marine pollution, potentially undermining national countermeasures.

What is required is an internationally shared approach prioritizing waste reduction and reuse, rigorously implementing separate collection and resource recovery, and safely treating only residual waste. Transitioning to a circular economy is not only essential for environmental conservation but also a rational choice to curb future economic burdens.