Thinking ahead like the wind How intuition measures the world 2011 and beyond

Thinking ahead like the wind How intuition measures the world 2011 and beyond

In the dual process theory presented by Daniel Kahneman, System 1 is the immediate thinking that underpins human judgment. It works to constantly monitor its surroundings and leaps to conclusions the moment stimuli appear. Before logic or calculation can take place, associations linked to appearance, mood, or past memories are activated, and we end up making choices without being able to explain why. This polling-like behavior has given us a survival advantage in avoiding danger and reading social cues at a faster rate.

This immediate judgment is also an ability that has been forged throughout evolutionary history. In situations such as sensing the presence of a predator or recognizing a hostile expression, a split-second reaction can make the difference between life and death rather than careful analysis. System 1 is therefore designed as an unconscious surveillance device that is constantly in operation. On the other hand, this system has other effects in modern society. In election campaigns, advertisements, interviews, and evaluations, first impressions are often overemphasized, and judgments are often solidified without adequate examination of subsequent information.

As Kahneman himself points out, the system1 is good at quickly creating average impressions and representative images, but not so good at operations such as counting, summing up, and accurately handling probabilities. Yet people still trust their intuition. This is a human trait that is hard to avoid even when we know it is wrong, and many studies in behavioral economics and cognitive psychology have experimentally demonstrated this automatic judgment bias. Numerous commentaries on fast-and-slow theory and cognitive biases have been published on the Web, and their applications to marketing and political communication have been discussed.

After all, System 1 polling judgments are the basis for our immediate relationship with the world. Its speed is its power and its weakness at the same time. Unless System 2, which is responsible for conscious contemplation, is invoked, intuition will continue to run. Living in the modern age, we need to learn to understand the nature of this wind-like thinking and where to stop.