Permafrost Thawing in Siberia - January 2007 to 2020s

Permafrost Thawing in Siberia - January 2007 to 2020s

Situation in January 2007
In the Siberian region of Russia, permafrost thawing was underway as of 2007. This thawing had the potential to affect 65% of the entire Arctic region, an area extending over approximately 20 million square kilometers. The permafrost layer holds approximately 1,400 gigatons of carbon, and there was concern about the risk of releasing approximately 5 billion tons of methane (CH₄) and carbon dioxide (CO₂) per year as the thaw progressed. In addition, for large companies such as Norilsk Nickel, facility damage due to subsidence was a serious issue.

Progress in the 2010s
In the 2010s, accelerated global warming led to significant permafrost thawing in Siberia. In particular, in 2016, a mysterious giant crater was discovered on the Yamal Peninsula and attributed to gas explosions associated with the thawing. In this area, the pressure of methane gas accumulated underground increased and was explosively released, forming several craters over 30 meters in diameter.

In addition, in 2019, the average temperature of Siberia as a whole was about 5°C higher than normal, which accelerated the surface thawing of the permafrost layer; in the decade of the 2010s, annual greenhouse gas emissions from permafrost thawing reached 600 million tons of CO₂ equivalent, forming a "feedback loop" that further accelerated warming. This created a "feedback loop" that further accelerated global warming.

At the same time, forest fires have increased, burning about 15,000 square kilometers of forest in Siberia in 2019. The emissions of carbon dioxide from these fires amounted to about 350 million tons, making Siberia one of the major sources of emissions in global warming.

Accelerated Melting in the 2020s
In May 2020, subsidence caused by thawing permafrost near Norilsk led to the collapse of an oil storage tank, spilling approximately 21,000 tons of diesel fuel into the Ambarnaya River. Environmental restoration costs from this incident were estimated at over $2 billion, making it the largest oil spill in the history of the Russian Arctic.

In June of the same year, a record high temperature of 38.0 °C was recorded in Verkhoyansk, Siberia, which is the highest ever recorded in the Arctic region, and the abnormally high temperatures caused permafrost to thaw over an even wider area. This is expected to result in the annual release of approximately 7 billion tons of CO₂-equivalent greenhouse gases.

In addition, by 2024, the Batagayka Crater (commonly known as the "Gates of Hell") in Siberia will expand at a rate of about 1 million cubic meters per year, covering an area of about 0.8 square kilometers. While releasing large amounts of methane gas, the crater also represents a rapid change in topography.

Conclusions and International Challenges
Throughout the 2010s, permafrost thawing in Siberia attracted international attention as a symbol of Arctic climate change, and its effects became more severe in the 2020s. The release of 1,400 gigatons of carbon trapped in permafrost into the atmosphere has the potential to accelerate global temperature increases.

Damage to infrastructure in Siberia also entailed direct economic losses, costing Norilsk Nickel billions of dollars. Meanwhile, forest fires, gas explosions, and other environmental changes throughout the Arctic region will have an immeasurable impact on humanity.

In order to cope with this, more than 50 new monitoring facilities in the Siberian region must be built by 2025 to promote the collection of detailed data on gas emissions. Policies to strengthen international CO₂ reduction targets and to accelerate the shift to renewable energy are essential. Permafrost thawing is a critical issue that will affect the global environment for decades to come, and requires sustained international cooperation.