Relationship between food supply and population growth - detailed discussion of differences in projections for the 2020s

Relationship between food supply and population growth - detailed discussion of differences in projections for the 2020s

1. population growth and food supply
- In 2000, projections showed that world population growth would decline to 1.2% by 2015 and 0.8% by 2030, while food supply would outpace this growth by 1.6%. In particular, food production was expected to increase due to improved agricultural technology in emerging economies such as India, China, and Brazil.
- As it stands in the 2020s, the population growth rate has actually declined to 1%, but rapid population growth continues in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia (especially India and Bangladesh), putting increasing pressure on food supplies. In particular, food security has become a serious issue in Sub-Saharan Africa, with hunger problems emerging in Ethiopia, Nigeria, and other countries. Meanwhile, food shortages in these regions remain unresolved, although world food supplies have maintained a growth rate of 1.6%.

2. impact of technological progress
- In 2000, forecasts predicted that agricultural efficiency through irrigation and genetic modification technologies would greatly improve food supply, especially in developing countries. Irrigation projects were expected to progress in India and Pakistan, and genetically modified rice was expected to become commercially available in China.
- As it stands in the 2020s, biotechnology and genetic engineering are significantly improving agricultural productivity in the United States, Brazil, and elsewhere. In Brazil, for example, GM crops led by companies such as Bayer (which acquired Monsanto) and Syngenta have spread widely, increasing corn and soybean production by 1.8 and 1.5 times, respectively, by 2023. Precision agriculture technology is also spreading, and agricultural production is becoming more efficient. However, these technologies have not been fully adopted in Africa, and productivity gains are still limited.

3. impact of climate change
- In the 2000 projections, the impact of climate change was not explicitly taken into account, but there was optimism that technological progress would solve the problem of food supply.
- As it stands in the 2020s, climate change is having a serious impact on agriculture. For example, the 2022 drought in the U.S. Midwest (Iowa, Nebraska, etc.) resulted in a 15% decrease in corn and wheat yields compared to the previous year. In addition, rising sea levels and salinity in South Asia (Bangladesh and Indonesia) have had a negative impact on rice production, and coastal agriculture is facing difficult conditions. This has created an urgent need for sustainable agriculture and new technologies to combat climate change.

4. the role of enterprises
- The 2000 projections did not mention specific companies by name or role, but they were expected to increase the food supply through technological advances.
- As it stands in the 2020s, multinationals such as Bayer of the United States (which bought Monsanto), Syngenta of Switzerland, and Cargill of the United States are using biotechnology and precision agriculture to make agricultural production more efficient. In particular, Bayer's genetically modified crops have been widely adopted around the world and have contributed to dramatic improvements in food production, but there are limits to how fully they can respond to the effects of climate change and the need to transition to sustainable agriculture. Furthermore, Japanese agricultural machinery manufacturer Kubota has also developed automated agricultural machinery, contributing to agricultural efficiency in the Asian region.

SUMMARY
While projections in 2000 were optimistic that technological innovation would increase food supply, the current situation in the 2020s highlights the disparity between regions that have benefited from technological progress and those regions that will be strongly affected by climate change. In particular, in order to address the food crisis in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, climate change adaptation measures are essential in addition to technological progress. Governments and businesses must work together to introduce sustainable agricultural technologies and strengthen food security in response to climate change.