Global Warming and the Fluctuation of Fruitfulness: The Trials and Future of Agriculture: Developments from 2007 to the 2020s

Global Warming and the Fluctuation of Fruitfulness: The Trials and Future of Agriculture: Developments from 2007 to the 2020s

2007: Initial Impacts and Challenges of Global Warming
The progression of global warming began to have a tangible impact on Japanese agriculture as of 2007. Average temperature increases were observed in major agricultural regions, causing problems especially in rice and fruit production. In Niigata Prefecture, Koshihikari rice faced yield loss due to high temperature damage, and in Ehime Prefecture, the quality of mandarin oranges was affected by a decline in sugar content. Changes in crop distribution were also observed, with Aomori Prefecture moving northward to Hokkaido as a suitable growing area for apples, and southern Kyushu expanding mango and papaya cultivation.

Furthermore, the distribution of pests and diseases also spread, and in Okinawa Prefecture, the number of banana shoot borers increased rapidly. In response, pesticide use increased and new pest control techniques were developed. In response to these challenges, the Japanese government formulated the "Climate Change Adaptation Program" and began developing high temperature tolerant varieties and temperature control technologies.

2010s: Strengthening Adaptation Measures and New Challenges
In the 2010s, the effects of global warming spread further. In Niigata Prefecture, the introduction of the high temperature tolerant variety "Shinnosuke" was promoted in order to cope with high temperature disorders. Meanwhile, in Aomori Prefecture, the decline in apple quality became more serious, and cultivation areas were shifted to Hokkaido. In Southern Kyushu, production of mangoes and passion fruit expanded, and farmers diversified their earnings.

At the same time, damage caused by pests increased. In Kochi Prefecture, in particular, the paddy rice plant damaging leafhopper, the "green rice leafhopper," proliferated, leading to an increase in the use of pesticides. In response to this situation, development of environmentally friendly biological pesticides began in earnest.

2020s: Current Status and Prospects
In the 2020s, the effects of global warming became even more pronounced. The average temperature in Japan as a whole has increased by about 12 degrees Celsius over the past 30 years, seriously affecting the quality and yield of crops. In Niigata Prefecture, rice yields continue to decline due to high temperature damage, with yields falling by about 15% in the summer of 2022. In Aomori Prefecture, the decline in sugar content of apples has also become an issue, and production in Hokkaido is expanding.

In southern Kyushu, mango and dragon fruit production increased in Miyazaki and Kagoshima prefectures, and export markets expanded. In Okinawa Prefecture, banana exports have increased 30% over the previous year and have become a new pillar of the local economy.

The government has also updated its "Climate Change Adaptation Plan" and accelerated the development of high temperature tolerant crops and new cultivation techniques. In Nara Prefecture, an improved variety of high-temperature tolerant strawberries, "Benihoppe," has been introduced and has been sold at high prices. In Kochi Prefecture, pest control technology has advanced, and biological pesticides provided by the company "AgriBio" have become widely used.

As global warming continues, diversification of agriculture, technological innovation, and efforts to take advantage of regional characteristics are key to the sustainability of agriculture.

Sources
- Ministry of the Environment, "Climate Change Impact Assessment Report" (20072020)
- Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries "Climate Change Adaptation Plan" Overview (20152022)
- Niigata Prefectural Agricultural Research Institute, "Adaptation Measures and Results Report on High Temperature Disruption" (2018)
- Aomori Prefectural Apple Research Center, "Northward expansion of apple growing areas and quality improvement" (2021)
- Miyazaki Prefectural Agricultural Promotion Division, "Potential of emerging crops and export strategy" (2022)
- AgriBio, "Development of Biological Pesticide Technology and Case Reports" (2021)