Climate and Population Stabilization: Detailed Progress from 2000 to the 2020s

Climate and Population Stabilization: Detailed Progress from 2000 to the 2020s

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#### Situation and challenges in 2000

In 2000, the Worldwatch Institute identified climate change and population growth as the biggest challenges of the 21st century in its "White Paper on Earth 2000." By 2050, the world's population was projected to reach 8.9 billion, with particularly rapid population growth expected in India and Nigeria. India's population at that time was about 1 billion, but by 2023 it will reach about 1.39 billion, and Nigeria will have a population of about 223 million in 2023.

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions was also an urgent issue, with the goal of reducing emissions by 25% from 1990 levels. At the same time, the expansion of renewable energy was also called for, and plans were made to cover 30% of the world's energy needs with solar and wind power by 2030. Major emitting countries such as China and the United States were at the center of this energy transition.

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#### Progress in the 2020s and projected population growth

According to the IPCC, to prevent a 1.5°C temperature rise, greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by 43% by 2030 and carbon neutrality achieved by 2050. As for population, the global population is expected to grow to about 8.5 billion in 2030 and 8.9 billion in 2050. India is certain to surpass China by 2027 to become the most populous country in the world.

The rapid growth of African countries is also attracting attention. Nigeria's population is expected to reach 400 million by 2050, making it the third most populous country in the world. The rapid population growth further exacerbates the risks of climate change and the challenges of resource management.

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#### urban-climate-adaptation-and-renewable-energy

Urban decarbonization is also underway. Shenzhen has electrified more than 16,000 buses, becoming the first city in the world to fully electrify its public transportation system. In addition, the European Union plans to allocate 1 trillion euros to climate-related investments by 2030. This has led to a proliferation of renewable energy sources, with wind power now providing more than 30% of Europe's total electricity supply.

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#### technology-and-industry-transformation

Technological innovation has reduced the cost of solar power by more than 90% between 2010 and the 2020s. Today, the cost of generating solar power has dropped to between 3 and 5 yen per kilowatt-hour, which is more economical than conventional coal (about 8 yen) and natural gas (about 10 yen). In addition, Toyota and Daimler have announced plans to transition their entire lineups to electric vehicles (EVs) by 2035.

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#### Ecosystem Impacts and Limits to Adaptation

On the coast of Indonesia, rising sea temperatures have bleached more than 50% of coral reefs, severely affecting the fishing and tourism industries. In addition, glaciers in the Alpine region are shrinking at a rate of more than 1% per year, making it difficult to maintain a stable supply of water resources. In these regions, adaptation measures are reaching their limits and immediate assistance is required.

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#### Conclusions and Future Prospects

Steady progress has been made in addressing climate change and population issues between 2000 and the 2020s, but more cooperation and action are needed. Achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 is essential if global warming is to be limited to within 1.5°C. A rapid and comprehensive effort is required to build a sustainable future through the cooperation of governments, businesses, and civil society.