Walking through the Cemetery of Silence The Problem of Silent Evidence and Historians Black Swan December 2025

Walking through the Cemetery of Silence The Problem of Silent Evidence and Historians Black Swan December 2025

The problem of unspeakable evidence is a deep trap that, though seemingly quiet and inconspicuous, shakes our very understanding of the world from behind the scenes. Facts that are not recorded, phenomena that disappear without being observed, do not appear in our view and remain silent. But it is this silence that is essential, and those of us who attempt to decipher the world based solely on the written record are often left with a serious blind spot. History is not only composed of what was written, but is also greatly distorted by what was not written. Herein lies the problem that historians constantly face.

The anecdote of the ancient philosopher Diogoras, who, when shown pictures of sailors who prayed and were saved, asked where were the pictures of those who prayed but were drowned, goes to the heart of this problem. What is not told, what is not recorded, what is lost in silence, is often the clue that illuminates the structure of the world. Even today, only stories of successes are told, while behind them, countless challenges and failures are quietly forgotten. Ignoring these lacunae distorts causality and creates false generalizations.

The relationship to the black swan goes even deeper. Major crises and extreme fluctuations lurk in areas that never surface as data in the first place. History describes only events that happened, so events that nearly happened and then disappeared, or tragedies that were never documented, slip from the statistics. Thus, the data and stories we have tell of the future with structural deficiencies, and black swans emerge from their silent blind spots.

The example of WWII aircraft is symbolic. It is a mistake to focus only on where the returning aircraft was hit, and to thicken the armor; what we should really be looking at is where the aircraft that did not return was hit. By imagining and supplementing the silent evidence, the judgment finally comes closer to reality. It is this imagination that is required of historians, the attitude of deciphering the quiet graveyard that lies behind the visible record.

The world is not shaped only by what is told. Countless unspoken traces support its contours as shadows, silently directing our understanding. The black swan lurks in the depths of these shadows and emerges from our blind spots. That is why searching for the evidence of silence and being aware of the historian's problem is an essential attitude for surviving in an uncertain world.