Muddy Boats, Waves of Print - Betting on Boat Racing and Publishing, June 1974

Muddy Boats, Waves of Print - Betting on Boat Racing and Publishing, June 1974

I was once addicted to boat racing. It all started when a friend invited me to the Edogawa Racecourse. At first I was just betting at random, but to my surprise, my 3,000 yen bet increased to 40,000 yen. This was amazing. I was so elated that I was surprised at how easy it was to make money increase that I took a cab to the university, bought a sweater and shoes that I had wanted for a long time at the co-op store, and toasted with my friends at the beer hall. I still had 50,000 yen left in my pocket. With this money, I was sure I could make a killing tomorrow...or so I naively thought.

However, the world is not so easy. From the next day on, I lost every game in a row. In just two days, he lost all his money. He bought a watch, an encyclopedia, the complete works of Soseki, records, a stereo, clothes, an electric kotatsu, a fountain pen (......), and everything else he could think of, but it was still not enough, and he found himself in debt. This is a typical pattern of a gambler stuck in the mire.

A good gambler is someone who always keeps a cool head and makes bold decisions when the time comes to win. But above all, he needs to have a comfortable pocketbook. That's right. If you lose this 1,000 yen, you will not be able to eat tomorrow.

I was thinking like that when I suddenly realized that I am not in a boat race right now. I'm gambling more than just boating right now. It's publishing.

Editing magazines is not so different from boat racing. It is not money that is at stake, but time, effort, connections, and money. If you hit a certain theme, you make a lot of money; if you miss it, you lose a lot of money. No matter how much you calculate, you will be swayed by the reaction of your readers and the current trends of the times. Just like when you think about whether or not you will win a boat race, you are constantly on the edge of your seat wondering, "Will this project be popular?" and always fraying my nerves. In other words, if boat racing is a "one-shot game," the publishing business is a "never-ending game.

In boat racing, every game is directly related to money. The condition of the engines, the weather, and the ability of the players all affect the outcome. And while you can make a fortune in a single race, you can also lose all your money in an instant. On the other hand, the publishing industry is also a world where the outcome is left to the readers and the currents of the times. No matter how many ideas the editors have put their heads together to come up with a plan, if it does not stick with readers, the magazine will not sell and the company will be left with a loss. In the end, just as the winner of a boat race must have the ability to make calm decisions and have enough funds, in the world of publishing, you cannot survive without a calm eye to determine what sells and the ability to manage funds.

In terms of risk, a boat race is a one-at-a-time contest; even if you bet 1,000 yen and lose, you still have a chance to win it back if you have the funds to bet on the next race. The publishing business, however, is different. Magazines must be published monthly or bi-weekly. If they fail once, they have to produce another issue. And if they continue to fail, the company itself will go out of business. If boat racing is a "short-term gamble," the publishing business is a "never-ending long-term gamble.

I thought, "In the end, I lost the boat race. I thought to myself, "In the end, I was disappointed to lose the boat race, but I was taking a bigger gamble. And that gamble was far deeper, more dangerous, and a swamp I could not get out of.

Conclusion.

I was worried that I would get stuck in the mire after losing at boat races, but when I thought about it, I was already in a much deeper mire (publishing business). I could quit the boat racing business once I lost, but I could not quit the publishing business even if I wanted to. No matter how little money I have, no matter how risky it is, I have to produce another issue. This is not a gamble anymore, but a game from which there is no escape.

If a person who is good at boat racing needs to be "calm and well-funded," then to survive in the publishing world, one must have "calm judgment and the ability to manage money. Neither is an easy world to win in.

After all, life itself may be a gamble.