Fuel Cell: February 2000

Fuel Cell: February 2000

Fuel cells are attracting attention as a clean and regionally distributed energy source. According to estimates by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry and the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, the market size of fuel cells is expected to reach 500 billion yen by 2010. According to these estimates, the annual installation of fuel cells will reach 380,000 kilowatts, the annual power generation will reach 1.1 billion kilowatt-hours, and the number of fuel cell vehicles introduced will reach 40,000 units per year by 2010.

In addition, it is estimated that about 20,000 new jobs will be created, with approximately 10,000 in the stationary fuel cell manufacturing sector and 10,000 in the fuel cell vehicle manufacturing sector. Furthermore, if the long-term supply and demand outlook to increase the supply of new energy from the current 1.1% to 3.1% is achieved, the introduction of about 100,000 fuel cell vehicles and 2.2 million kilowatts of residential fuel cells will enable a reduction of about 700,000 tons of CO2 emissions annually by 2010.

In the medium to long term, if about 20% of private passenger cars and residential water heaters are replaced, approximately 8 million fuel cell vehicles and 5 million kilowatts of residential fuel cells are expected to be introduced, resulting in a CO2 emission reduction effect of approximately 4.42 million tons. According to this estimate, this corresponds to about 1.5% of the total annual CO2 emissions in 1990. In addition, the energy-saving effect of introducing such new energy sources, including fuel cells, is expected to reach approximately 690,000 kiloliters of crude oil equivalent annually by 2010 and approximately 5.56 million kiloliters annually in the medium to long term.

Fuel cells work by extracting hydrogen from fossil fuels and generating electricity through a chemical reaction with oxygen. The only byproduct of the power generation process is water, and no CO2 is emitted, making it an effective measure against global warming. Additionally, fuel cells are highly efficient and can reduce the use of fossil fuels, contributing to cost savings.

The widespread adoption of these technologies requires government support. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry and the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy are promoting the "FC2010 Project," aiming to commercialize and put fuel cells into practical use by 2005, pushing forward with various demonstration experiments and technological developments.

With the advancement of fuel cell technology, further market expansion and reduction of environmental impact are expected in the future. Continued technological innovation and cost reduction will likely lead to wider adoption in various fields, marking an important step towards realizing a sustainable society.

Comparison with Figures as of 2022

As of 2022, the market size of fuel cells was reported to be approximately 2.9 billion USD (about 319 billion yen). This shows that although the market size is lower than initially expected, it continues to grow. From 2022 to 2032, the market is expected to grow at an average annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26%, reaching approximately 29.36 billion USD by 2032.

These data confirm that although the actual growth has been somewhat delayed compared to the forecast in 2000, significant market growth is still expected. Fuel cell technology continues to attract attention and will remain a crucial technology for market expansion and environmental impact reduction in the future.