Russia's Vision of the Future - Climate Change and the Restructuring of the Resource Powers (Early 21st Century)

Russia's Vision of the Future - Climate Change and the Restructuring of the Resource Powers (Early 21st Century)

In the early 21st century, Russia is touted as the country with the greatest potential to benefit from climate change. Global warming is a disaster for many regions, but in Russia, with its vast land area, the thawing of permafrost in Siberia and the far north could expand farmland and dramatically increase agricultural productivity. Russia is already the world's leading exporter of wheat, and this advantage is expected to be further strengthened if climate change advances.

The background at the time was Russia's dependence on resource exports after the turmoil that followed the end of the Cold War, and while the country's finances have been enriched by soaring oil and natural gas prices since the 2000s, it has not diversified its domestic industry, which has remained heavily dependent on resource revenues. Under these circumstances, the perspective of "how to take advantage of climate change" began to be seriously discussed as part of national strategy. In fact, in the 2010s, the Russian government came up with a plan that clearly stated "taking advantage of global warming as an opportunity," with agricultural expansion and Arctic resource development as major pillars of the plan.

One of the cities attracting attention as the future of the city is Yakutsk in Siberia. Known as one of the world's leading diamond-producing regions, the region has long faced difficulties in population settlement and infrastructure development due to the extreme cold. However, as the temperature rises, land use will become easier, and the region has the potential to emerge as a center for agriculture, mining, and transportation. Furthermore, if the year-round use of the Arctic sea route becomes a reality, the port cities of the Russian Far East will be transformed into new hubs for international trade.

However, this vision of the future also entails significant risks. While thawing permafrost would allow for agricultural expansion, it would also release large amounts of methane and carbon dioxide, risking a "runaway climate" that would further accelerate global warming. In addition, instances have already been identified where the foundations of infrastructure have been destabilized, leading to the collapse of buildings and roads. Whether Russia can overcome these challenges will determine whether it can be a "global warming winner.

In short, Russia's vision of the future is a mixture of hope and uncertainty. While Russia has the potential to strengthen its global influence as a food supply superpower and energy and logistics hub, backed by its vast land and resources, the question continues to be how to overcome environmental risks and social challenges.