Boundaries of the Northward Season--A Portrait of the City in 2050

Boundaries of the Northward Season--A Portrait of the City in 2050

In the mid-latitudes of North America, along the Mediterranean coast, in the Sahel of Africa, and deep in the Amazon of South America, the combination of aridification and increased frequency of extreme temperatures is expected to create early migration pressures that will make it difficult to make a living and sustain livelihoods. The number of heat waves is likely to increase over the next three decades, affecting billions of people. The effects of urban heat exhaustion will be exacerbated, with urban heat increasing to about three times the level of the 1980s. The resulting expansion of subtropical zones and the northward shift of climate zones to higher latitudes are projected to change their distribution on a scale of about 1,000 kilometers.

Climate projections for cities indicate that London will have a climate similar to that of Barcelona in the future, Moscow will resemble Sofia, the capital of Bulgaria, and Tokyo will feel more like Changsha in China's Hunan Province. These changes indicate a transformation in summer temperatures and dry/humid seasonality, and urban design to cope with increased heat stress is urgently needed. In addition to measures such as insulation, solar shading, nighttime ventilation, cool roofs, green shade, and waterside spaces, urban resilience must be strengthened in areas such as water supply, medical care, and preparedness for power outages. In addition, extremely hot days can reduce labor productivity, and rising minimum temperatures at night can increase health hazards. Peak loads on urban infrastructure, such as transportation and electricity, are expected to increase, and it will be inevitable that social systems will have to respond by reviewing suitable residential areas and
reorganizing working hours.