IEA Energy Outlook (2007)

IEA Energy Outlook (2007)

The World Energy Outlook 2007, published in 2007, is an important document that forecasts energy structural changes in the first half of the 21st century. At that time, the world economy was experiencing high growth, especially in the BRICs, and oil prices continued to soar. International crude oil prices exceeded $70 per barrel in the summer of 2007 and were projected to approach $100 per barrel in 2008, making both energy security and greenhouse gas reductions pressing issues for each country.

The report estimated that global primary energy demand would increase by about 50% by 2030, with most of the increase coming from emerging economies, especially China and India. China is expected to earn about $3 billion per year through emissions trading, a testament to the presence of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) market, which expanded under the Kyoto Protocol, which came into effect in 2005. To curb its high dependence on imported oil, India mandated 10% ethanol blending in gasoline and promoted the production of biofuels in rural areas.

In the U.S., ethanol refineries using cellulosic biomass as feedstock have been commercialized for the first time as the country's dependence on fossil fuels is being reevaluated. In order to avoid the "competition with food" problem of corn-based biofuels, next-generation fuels using wood and agricultural residues attracted attention. In the U.K., telecommunications giant BT announced a plan to cover 25% of its energy needs with wind power by 2016, and the EU as a whole was discussing a renewable energy introduction target (20% by 2020).

This was a transitional period in the search for a post-Kyoto international framework, with the first commitment period (2008-2012) of the Kyoto Protocol just around the corner. Behind the aggressive moves by countries to introduce renewable energy and trade emission credits was a sense of crisis over global warming as well as geopolitical risks surrounding energy (growing dependence on the Middle East and resource nationalism). The "World Energy Outlook 2007" had a major impact as an international guideline linking climate change and economic and industrial policies, going beyond mere supply and demand forecasts.

Thus, the IEA's outlook was not only a warning against increasing energy demand, but also reflected the demands of the times as countries pressed for a transition to a low-carbon society, laying the foundation for the later expansion of renewable energy and the formation of emission rights markets.