A 2 trillion yen bet on the national budget: the dream of Lapidus in the 2020s.

A 2 trillion yen bet on the national budget: the dream of Lapidus in the 2020s.

The next-generation semiconductor company LAPIDUS is a huge project led by the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) as a trump card for the revival of Japan's semiconductor industry. While the company is trying to regain its former glory with a "Dream Again," its footing has never been stable. The structure, human resources, and processes of Rapidus are being hastily put in place, but there is a growing suspicion that the government and the company are working in unison to push forward, and that they may be lacking a sober examination of the situation.

Rapidus was established in 2022 and is building a state-of-the-art semiconductor plant in Chitose City, Hokkaido, with a line width of 2 nm or less. The pilot line is scheduled to start operation in 2025 and mass production in 2027, with total investment expected to reach the 5 trillion yen scale. The government has already committed over 1.7 trillion yen in public support, with subsidies totaling 70 billion yen in FY2022, 260 billion yen in FY2023, and 590 billion yen in FY2024.

However, the funds required are even greater. Some estimate that 2 trillion yen for R&D and 3 trillion yen for mass production would be required, highlighting a structure that cannot be completed without domestic and foreign private investment and bank loans. Moreover, with Taiwanese companies moving toward 2-nanometer mass production and Korean, European, and U.S. companies in fierce competition for the 1.4-nanometer and 1-nanometer generations, it will not be easy for Japanese start-ups to catch up in less than five years.

The 2-nanometer process, the core of the technology, relies heavily on cooperation with the U.S., and is in the midst of an international competition for equipment, materials, and human resources. Even if mass production at the Chitose Plant were to start as scheduled, it will take an enormous amount of time and investment to stabilize yields, secure customers, and reach the profit line. There are also concerns that the government's continued support under the banner of "security" will undermine the company's independence, placing "security over profitability" as the top priority.

On the other hand, it is certain that 2-nano-level semiconductors will become a fundamental technology for many fields, including automated driving, communications, and decarbonized power control, and the risk of Japan's continued dependence on foreign countries is great. Rapidus has shown some progress in disclosing prototype wafers and preparing pilot lines. This is why the central point of this discussion is the warning that society as a whole must continue to monitor the project, including transparency, cost-effectiveness, and a verification system in the event of failure, to ensure that the massive national investment does not end up as a pipe dream.