The Melting of Siberian Permafrost - From January 2007 to the 2020s

The Melting of Siberian Permafrost - From January 2007 to the 2020s

**The Situation in January 2007**
In the Siberian region of Russia, the melting of permafrost was progressing rapidly by 2007. This melting had the potential to affect 65% of an area spanning approximately 20 million square kilometers across the Arctic region. The permafrost contained about 1400 gigatons of carbon, and its melting posed a risk of releasing approximately 5 billion tons of methane (CH₄) and carbon dioxide (CO₂) annually. Additionally, large companies such as Norilsk Nickel faced serious challenges from infrastructure damage due to ground subsidence.

**Developments in the 2010s**
In the 2010s, the acceleration of global warming exacerbated the melting of Siberian permafrost. Notably, in 2016, mysterious giant craters were discovered on the Yamal Peninsula, attributed to gas explosions caused by the melting permafrost. Increased methane gas pressure trapped underground resulted in multiple craters exceeding 30 meters in diameter.

In 2019, the average temperature across Siberia was approximately 5°C higher than normal, further accelerating the surface melting of permafrost. During this decade, the annual greenhouse gas emissions from melting permafrost reached 600 million tons in CO₂ equivalents, forming a "feedback loop" that further accelerated warming.

Simultaneously, forest fires increased, with approximately 150000 square kilometers of forest burned in Siberia in 2019. These fires emitted about 350 million tons of CO₂, making Siberia one of the major sources of global warming.

**Accelerated Melting in the 2020s**
In May 2020, ground subsidence due to melting permafrost caused an oil storage tank collapse near Norilsk, releasing approximately 21000 tons of diesel fuel into the Ambarnaya River. This incident, estimated to cost over 2 billion USD for environmental restoration, became the largest oil spill disaster in Russia's Arctic region.

In June 2020, Verkhoyansk in Siberia recorded an all-time high temperature of 38.0°C for the Arctic region. The extreme heat caused widespread permafrost melting, potentially releasing about 7 billion tons of CO₂ equivalent greenhouse gases annually.

In 2024, the Batagaika Crater (nicknamed "Gateway to Hell") expanded at a rate of about 1 million cubic meters per year, reaching an area of approximately 0.8 square kilometers. This crater symbolizes the rapid geographical changes caused by melting permafrost, alongside the significant release of methane gas.

**Conclusions and Global Challenges**
Throughout the 2010s, the melting of Siberian permafrost became a global symbol of climate change in the Arctic, with its impacts worsening in the 2020s. The release of 1400 gigatons of carbon trapped in the permafrost could accelerate global temperature increases.

Furthermore, infrastructure damage in Siberia resulted in direct economic losses, with Norilsk Nickel's damages amounting to several billion USD. Meanwhile, environmental changes, including forest fires and gas explosions, have had immeasurable impacts on humanity.

To address this, over 50 monitoring facilities need to be established in Siberia by 2025 to collect detailed data on gas emissions. Strengthened international CO₂ reduction goals and accelerated policies promoting renewable energy transitions are crucial. The melting of permafrost is a critical issue shaping the Earth's environment in the coming decades, necessitating sustained international cooperation.