Environment New Risks from Ice Melt - in the Context of the Times

Environment New Risks from Ice Melt - in the Context of the Times

In the climate change debate at the beginning of the 21st century, "ice melting" in the Arctic and Siberia attracted attention in two ways. One was the expectation that retreating ice would open up new areas for habitation and development, and the other was the risk posed by the permafrost thawing that was proceeding behind the ice melting. The latter, in particular, was feared as an "unknown threat" different from conventional disasters.

Research at the time indicated that permafrost contains vast amounts of organic matter that, when thawed, would release large amounts of carbon dioxide and methane, which would accelerate global warming. At the same time, however, attention began to focus on the possibility that viruses and bacteria trapped in the ice thousands to tens of thousands of years ago might resume activity. Indeed, giant viruses (such as pitoviruses and mordoviruses) that resurrected from the frozen Siberian soil in the 2010s demonstrated the real possibility that humanity could face an unknown microbial population.

These risks are not mere theory, but are backed up by real examples on the ground: in 2016, anthrax reemerged on Siberia's Yamal Peninsula, killing thousands of reindeer and infecting some humans. This is believed to be the result of reindeer carcasses that died of anthrax more than 70 years ago being exposed to the surface by thawing frozen soil, spreading the pathogen. This event strongly impressed upon us the possibility that the "sleeping menace in the ice" could once again affect human society.

Furthermore, from a geopolitical perspective, there were concerns that while the thawing of the ice would open up opportunities for new routes and resource development, the concomitant expansion of human activity into the Arctic would increase the probability of humans facing frozen-soil-derived pathogens and environmental risks. Discussions at the time emphasized the "intersection of climate risk and public health" as an international challenge, with pandemics of infectious diseases being indirectly caused by global warming.

Thus, ice melting was discussed as a phenomenon that was inextricably linked to the "expansion of new habitats" and the "release of unknown pathogens," and was considered one of the critical situations that would determine the future of humanity.