Environment Beyond a Century of Climate Change - Survival Crisis at the Beginning of the 21st Century

Environment Beyond a Century of Climate Change - Survival Crisis at the Beginning of the 21st Century

In a future where temperatures will rise three to four degrees Celsius, human survival will require massive migration and urban construction. Vast tracts of land in the tropics will have to be abandoned, and we will have no choice but to rely on new forms of agriculture. These arguments rapidly became a reality toward the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century. Already in that period, climate change was steadily advancing, and the international community was facing major challenges.

The Kyoto Protocol of 1997 was an important attempt to establish a framework for reducing greenhouse gases. However, the withdrawal of the United States and inadequate responses by major emitting countries limited its effectiveness, and emissions increased. As the industrialization of emerging economies such as China and India advanced and the center of gravity of the global economy shifted, the goal of a temperature rise of no more than 2 degrees Celsius was already considered a threat, and the serious scenario of a 3 to 4 degree Celsius rise became a realistic agenda item.

At the same time, extreme weather events are becoming more severe in many regions. Heat waves were killing people in India and Pakistan, and drought and famine were spreading social unrest in the Sahel region of Africa. These cases proved that climate change is not just an environmental problem, but also a threat to the stability of nations and the international order itself. From this point on, the term "climate refugees" became widespread, and people began to talk about a vision of the future in which the migration of hundreds of millions of people would be inevitable. High-latitude regions such as Scandinavia and Canada were eyed as migration destinations, and against the backdrop of post-Cold War globalization and advances in urban engineering, the vision of large-scale, planned migration began to become a reality.

Fundamental changes are also required in agriculture. Conventional agriculture is unable to cope with rapid changes in climate zones, so there is an urgent need to develop new varieties of crops that can grow in cold and dry regions. Genetic modification technology has produced drought- and cold-tolerant crops, and irrigation technology and water circulation systems that efficiently use water resources have also advanced. In addition, smart agriculture that can control temperature and humidity, and precision agriculture using drones and sensors have emerged, transforming agriculture into a survival strategy linked to science and technology.

In the field of urban planning, cities are seeking to create cities that adapt to their environment. Stilt roads, preservation of wetlands to absorb floodwaters, and infrastructure development based on renewable energy are being discussed, and sustainable urban models are being considered in many parts of the world. With regard to renewable energy, in addition to solar and wind power, the potential for hydropower from melting glaciers is also attracting attention. These technologies are expected not only to reduce the burden on the environment, but also to be tools for humanity's survival in a harsh climate.

Climate change and the crisis of human survival are thus taking shape in the context of a period of stagnant international politics, increasingly severe disasters in various regions, and progress in technological innovation. At the beginning of the 21st century, humanity was forced to transcend conventional values and social structures and seek a new framework for coexisting with the environment.